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We argue that a the predictive sta- bility of our model is an indication of a fundamental stability in the macroe- conomic transmission mechanism but that b the shifting correlations and volatilities highlight the importance of changes in the structure of underlying shocks. Our explanation follows a recent literature in modern-day emerging mar- ket macroeconomics in arguing that basic models without frictions match the data from emerging market economies quite well once the underlying shocks are allowed to be more persistent than usually specified for industrialized economies. This does not mean that financial or goods market frictions are unimportant in these economies. Rather, these frictions manifest themselves in the structure of the underlying shocks - their volatility and persistence - rather than in a breakdown of the fundamental model of the transmission 28 mechanism.